:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Mar 13 2330 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: Corrected Copy ::::::::::
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N15E15) showed growth and is now magnetically
classified as a Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (14-16 March). 
C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class event from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on the first day (14 March)
and then at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day two and three
(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and
solar sector boundary crossing.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 092
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  092/093/094
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  003/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  005/007-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05