:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N14W14) has showed slight decay but continues
to maintain its magnetic Beta-Gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (16-18 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class event also from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(16-18 March). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and day two, and a slow
moving partial halo CME observed on 13 February arriving late on day
three.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 086
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  086/086/087
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  007/007-007/007-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05