:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Todays flare activity
consisted of a single B1 X-ray event at 0402Z from Region 1060
(N26E32). In addition a small, possibly earthward directed CME was
observed in the Stereo coronagraph images and was associated with
disk activity in the SOHO EIT images beginning at about 0113Z, just
north of Region 1061 (N14W24). Region 1061 appears to be growing
slowly.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region
1061.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of
the day, with the exception of an interval of minor to major storm
levels between 0000-0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE
spacecraft showed a slow trend of increasingly negative Bz
consistent with continued influence of yesterdays CME-driven
activity. Peak negative Bz values reached -8 nT at about 1250Z.
Solar wind velocity gradually decreased during the past 24 hours and
was about 550 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active for the first day (07 April) due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to
be unsettled to active on the second day (08 April) due to
persistence as well as possible effects from todays CME.
Predominantly quiet levels are expected on the third day (09 April).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 078
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  082/085/085
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  028/049
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  025/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  015/020-012/015-005/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/05
Minor storm           20/10/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/25/05
Minor storm           25/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/05/01