:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours.  The visible disk is spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 April).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active to minor
storm periods from 14/21-15/03Z due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (16 April).  Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for days two and three (17-18 April),
with possible isolated active periods at high latitudes on day three
(18 April).  Increased activity levels are due to effects from the
CME observed on 13 April. .
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 075
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  075/077/078
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  005/005-007/007-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/30
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/30/35
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01