:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A single
low-level B-class flare occurred during the period. Region 1069
(N42W51) showed a decrease in area, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. An eruptive prominence and associated CME
(estimated velocity 507 km/sec) occurred near the southwest limb
very early in the period. The CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 May) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (09 May) as Region 1069 crosses the west
limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. However,
a brief period of active levels was detected at Boulder around
06/0800Z. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained
within a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 491 - 584 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the summary period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3 (07 -
09 May). There is also a chance for active levels during days 2 - 3
(08 - 09 May) in response to recent CME activity.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    20/20/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 079
Predicted   07 May-09 May  078/076/075
90 Day Mean        06 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  007/009-010/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01