:Product: 0507RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1069 (N42W67) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 07/0742Z as well as isolated low-level B-class
flares. Region 1069 continued to gradually decay, but maintained a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration through most of the period. No new
regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (08 - 09 May) with a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (10 May) as Region 1069 rotates out of
view.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained under the influence
of a subsiding coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
gradually decreased from 565 to 448 km/sec during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels during most of the summary period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (08 -
09 May) with a chance for active levels in response to recent CME
activity. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
levels on day 3 (10 May).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M    10/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 May 079
Predicted   08 May-10 May  078/076/075
90 Day Mean        07 May 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  010/012-010/012-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01