:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 1069
(N41W78) produced isolated C-class flares as it approached the west
limb. The largest of these was a C9/1f at 08/0459Z associated with
radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz. New Region 1071 (S20W42), a
small A-type spot, was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
on day 1 (09 May) with a chance for isolated C-class flares from
Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels
during days 2 - 3 (10 - 11 May) due to the departure of Region 1069
early on 10 May.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated Earth remained within a gradually subsiding
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities decreased from
518 to 437 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 -
10 May) with a slight chance for active levels. Field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (11 May) with a
chance for active levels due a recurrent co-rotating interaction
region/coronal-hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    10/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 079
Predicted   09 May-11 May  077/075/075
90 Day Mean        08 May 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  007/008-007/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01