:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Plage Region 1068 (S19W50)
produced a B2 flare at 13/0355Z. The visible disk remained spotless.
No new regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (14 - 16 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (14 May). Field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3
(15 - 16 May) due to a coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 069
Predicted   14 May-16 May  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 May 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/005-007/007-007/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01