:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the period (19-21 May).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for day one (19 May).  Quiet to
unsettled, with isolated active periods, are expected on day two and
three (20-21 May).  The increase is forecast due to the possible
onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 069
Predicted   19 May-21 May  072/072/074
90 Day Mean        18 May 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  005/008-008/013-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01