:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The visible disk
remains spotless.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data
from ACE indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region at
about 19/0900Z in advance of a recurrent high speed stream.  During
the period, solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/sec to
approximately 495 km/sec.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated active periods
on days one and two (20-21 May).  Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day 3 (May 22), as the high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 069
Predicted   20 May-22 May  070/070/072
90 Day Mean        19 May 079
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  012/018-010/015-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05