:Product: 0527RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 May 27 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  No flares were
observed during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled to active with a chance for
minor storm levels on day 1 (28 May). Unsettled to active levels are
expected on day 2 (29 May). Activity on days one and two is forecast
due to the expected arrival of the two CMEs observed on 23 and 24
May. Unsettled to active, with a chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day three (30 May) as a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geo-effective.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 072
Predicted   28 May-30 May  073/073/075
90 Day Mean        27 May 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  020/020-018/020-020/022
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/55
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/45/50
Minor storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/10