:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1079 (S23W95) produced an M1.0/SF flare at 0539Z which was
associated with a Type II radio sweep.  Regions 1079 and 1080
(S24W77) decayed to plage towards the end of the period.  Region
1081 (N24W76) produced several C-class flares during the past 24
hours and maintains a beta magnetic classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
for days 1 and 2 (14-15 June).  Activity is expected to be very low
for day 3 (16 June).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on days 1 and 2 (14-15 June).  Conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on day 3 (16 June) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream moving into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 076
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  076/074/072
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 076
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/40
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01