:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. A
long duration B1 flare began at 05/1836Z, peaked at 06/0024Z, and
ended at 06/0312Z. This event was associated with a CME observed in
SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, lifting off the NW limb at 05/2108Z. The
source of this CME appeared to be a filament eruption, observed in
SOHO EIT imagery at 05/1751Z on the NW limb near N26. This CME does
not appear to be earth-directed. A second filament eruption occurred
near N36E16, observed in SOHO EIT imagery at 06/0400Z. Region 1086
(N18W65) produced a B1 flare at 06/1011Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (07-09
July). Isolated unsettled levels are expected at high latitudes on
day three (09 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 073
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  074/074/074
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01