:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1087 (N21E30)
produced numerous B-class flares during the past 24 hours.  The
region has shown little change in spot number and areal coverage and
has a simple delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
during the next three days (13-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 080
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  008/008-010/012-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/20
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/30
Minor storm           20/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05