:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Region 1087 (N20W19) has
shown little change during the past 24 hours with only low-level
B-class activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1087.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with one isolated
period of unsettled conditions during the period.  Solar wind
observations from the ACE spacecraft show a continued decline in
solar wind speeds with an average below 400 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (17-19 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 077
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  076/075/075
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 074
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/01/01
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01