:Product: 0801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1092
(N13E21) produced a long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z. The flare
was associated with a Type IV radio sweep, an 890 sfu Tenflare, and
an Earth-directed full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). A
disappearing filament (DSF)  occurred during 01/0750 - 0811Z,
centered near N37W32 and time coincident with the C3 flare. The DSF
was associated with an Earth-directed partial-halo CME. No new
regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1092.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due
to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects
subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 080
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  080/080/082
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 075
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  007/008-018/018-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/30
Minor storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/45/35
Minor storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/15/10