:Product: 0815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N18W73) produced
several B-class flares and also a C5/Sf flare at 15/1830Z. The
SOHO-NASA spacecraft c2 imagery observed an eruptive filament at
15/0812Z near N35W40. The DSF is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. The
increase in activity is in response to a coronal hole high-speed
stream on day one (16 August). The activity on days two and three
(17 - 18 August) are in response to the CME observed on 14 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 086
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01