:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1099 (N17W84) produced
several B-class flares and also a C1 flare at 16/1639Z. New region
1100 (S24E59) was numbered today and is classified as a Axx-type
group with an alpha magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
was observed at 16/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
days one and two (17 - 18 August) in response to the CME observed on
14 August. Mostly quiet levels are expected on day three (19
August).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 085
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 077
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  010/015-010/012-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01