:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Regions 1105 (N18W36) and
1101 (N12W70) produced several B-class x-ray events during the
period. The largest event, an impulsive B6 flare, occurred at
04/07Z.  A filament was observed on SDO AIA 193 lifting from the
north west quadrant at 04/1430Z. A limb event CME was visible in
SOHO LASCO C3 shortly after with an estimated speed of 368 km/s. The
same event was visible on the STEREO-A coronagraph and produced a
partial halo in the southeast quadrant.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next 3 days (5-7 September).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions for the next 3 days (5-7 September) due to recurrent
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 082
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  084/084/082
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10