:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  Regions 1101 (N13W88) and
1105 (N19W52) produced several B-class events  during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
for the next 3 days (6-8 September) with a chance for  C-class
events and a slight chance for M-class events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
forecast to range from quiet to active conditions for days 1-2
(06-07 September). Conditions are forecast to return to quiet
conditions on day 3 (08 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 082
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  001/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01