:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  New Region 1106 (S18E64)
rotated onto the disk during the period and produced several B-class
events.  A 20 degree filament eruption, centered near N25E25, was
observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 11/0204Z.  SOHO LASCO C3 imagery
indicated an associated partial-halo CME, with a majority of the CME
extending NE from the filament eruption.  Further analysis, using
imagery from STEREO-A and STEREO-B COR2, indicated a portion of the
CMEs southern flank could possibly be Earth-directed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance of C-class activity from emerging Region
1106.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, for days one and two (12 - 13 September)
due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to return to mostly quiet
levels on day three (14 September).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 078
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  079/080/080
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 078
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01