:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1109 (N21W93) produced
a C2/1f event at 04/1635Z as it continues its rotation around the
west limb of the Sun.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for days one and two (05-06 October).  Any increase in
activity is expected due to a possible weak coronal hole high speed
stream.  Day three (07 October) is expected to be at quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 076
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  075/075/075
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  007/007-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01