:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S18E54)
produced a few moderate level B-class flares during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (11 - 13 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at
high latitudes on days one and two (11 - 12 October). This activity
is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole coupled with glancing
blow effects from the 06 October full-halo CME. Day three (13
October) will see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 076
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  076/078/078
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  001/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  008/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01