:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. No flares
were detected. Region 1112 (S19E26) was quiet and stable. No new
regions were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (13 - 15 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as it
recovered from yesterdays CME-driven disturbance. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated velocities were variable and ranged from 364
to 453 km/s. IMF Bz was weakly southward during most of the period
(maximum deflection -7 nT at 12/0037Z) while IMF Bt gradually
decreased from 7 nT to 5 nT as the period progressed.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (13 - 15
October).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 075
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  076/076/076
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01