:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S17E14)
remained stable and quiet. New Region 1113 (N17E76) produced several
B-class x-ray events, the largest a B4 event at 13/1627Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (14-16 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron Flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days 1 and 2 (14-15 October) and quiet to
unsettled with a chance for isolated periods of active conditions on
day 3 (16 October). The increased activity is expected due to the
possible arrival of a CME observed on 11 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 078
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 080
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01