:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112
(S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated
with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from
245MHz - 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z.
In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity
of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region
1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb
remained unchanged.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events
from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 - 19 October).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(17 - 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active
levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects
from the 14 October CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 087
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  088/088/088
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/35
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01