:Product: 1029RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 Oct 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1117 (N20W55) produced occasional B-class flares during the period. The largest of these was a B4 flare at 29/1732Z. Region 1117 showed a decrease in areal coverage and sunspot count. No new regions were numbered during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1117. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first day (30 October) due to a weak CME observed on 26 October. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on the second day (31 October). Quiet to active levels are expected on the third day (01 November), with a slight chance for a minor storm period at high latitudes. The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 086 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 084/084/082 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 007/007-005/005-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/01/25 Minor storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/01/30 Minor storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05