:Product: 1113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 085
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 081
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-018/018-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/50
Minor storm           10/45/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/50
Minor storm           10/50/30
Major-severe storm    05/20/15