:Product: 1114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2010 Nov 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S22W37) produced a C1/Sf flare at 14/0001Z. Region 1124 (N14W17) has grown in spot count as well as area while producing several B-class x-ray events. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (15-17 November). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November. Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November). III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 086 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 020/020-015/015-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/50/30 Minor storm 45/20/10 Major-severe storm 15/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/50/40 Minor storm 50/30/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/10