:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. Region 1127 (N24W71)
was quiet and stable. Region 1128 (S14E35) has decayed to spotless
plage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (28-30 November).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Observations at the
ACE satellite indicated the onset of recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.  Wind speeds reached approximately 450 km/s during the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with a slight chance
for an isolated active period on day one (28 November). The increase
is forecast due to elevated solar wind speed from a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.  Observations from the Behind
satellite indicate the enhanced wind speeds should subside during
day one.  Days two and three (29-30) November are expected to be
quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 077
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  077/077/078
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 082
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  007/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01