:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2010 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2010
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A filament eruption
occurred in the southwest quadrant and was first observed in
STEREO-A imagery at about 12/0330Z. Coincident with the eruption was
a long duration B4 x-ray event that peaked at 12/0628Z. During the
past 24 hours, three separate CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery. The first was observed departing the southwest limb at
12/0412Z. Subsequent CMEs were observed departing from the northeast
limb at 12/0524Z and from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z.  The
remainder of the disk and limb was largely unchanged.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class event from Region 1131
(N31W58), for the next 3 days (13-15 December).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.  At approximately
12/1500Z, the field became unsettled to active in response to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods,
for Day 1 (13 December).  A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for Days 2 and 3 (14-15 December) as the coronal hole high
speed stream departs.  At this time, the three CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are not expected to be geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 089
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  090/090/088
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  007/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01