:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels during the period
with only a few low-level B-class events observed. Region 1140
(N34E01) developed two spots to the NNE of the large H-type spot and
was reclassified as a Cso Beta. Region 1141 (N34W76) exhibited decay
in area and spot count while Region 1142 (S13W18) showed similar
decay, predominately in the trailer spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity,
all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The ACE satellite
observed a sector boundary crossing from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) magnetic field at approximately 05/1830Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the
forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm
periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted
increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
by 06 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 088
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  088/088/086
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  007/007-007/007-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01