:Product: 0108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1139
(S29W87) produced a B2 flare at 08/0923Z as it approached the west
limb. Region 1140 (N33W36) showed no significant changes and
remained a C-type group with minor magnetic complexity. Region 1143
(S23E02) decayed to a B-type group with a simple bipolar magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 - 11 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 581 to 672 km/s during the period. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) intensity remained enhanced (peak 6 nT), while
IMF Bz was variable at -4 to +6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 -
10 January). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
on day 3 (11 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream
subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 085
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  084/084/082
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01