:Product: 0109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1140
(N32W49) produced a B1 flare at 09/1351Z. Region 1140 showed signs
of decay with the loss of spots in the positive-polarity field just
north of the main spot and was classified as an Hsx group. The
remaining spot groups were A- and B-types with simple magnetic
configurations, including newly numbered Regions 1144 (S16W36) and
1145 (N15E35).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels through the period (10 - 12 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities were variable
in the 554 to 648 km/s range. IMF Bt showed a gradual increase with
a peak value of 6 nT observed late in the period. IMF Bz was
variable and ranged from +5 to -4 nT during the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day 1 (10
January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream persists. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during days 2 - 3
(11 - 12 January) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 083
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  082/082/080
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01