:Product: 0110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by
Region 1140 (N32W61). Region 1140 showed no significant changes
during the period and remained an Hsx-type spot. Region 1145
(N16E27) also showed no significant changes and remained a
simply-structured Bxo-type group. Regions 1142 (S17W88) and 1144
(S16W49) both decayed to plage during the period. New Region 1146
(N23E46), a single spot Axx type, was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 - 13 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth was in a subsiding coronal hole
high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from
642 to 487 km/s during the period. IMF Bz was variable and ranged
from +5 nT to -3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (11 - 13 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jan 083
Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  082/080/080
90 Day Mean        10 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01