:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained very low with occasional
low-level B-class flares. Region 1140 (N33W74) developed a few spots
north of its main spot and was classified as a Cso-type group. It
produced a B-class flare as it approached the west limb. Region 1146
(N23E33) showed little change during the period and produced a
single B-class flare. Two B-class flares were observed on the
southwest limb and attributed to plage Region 1142 (S17, L=212),
which departed the visible disk early in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (12 - 14 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (12 - 13
January). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance for brief active levels on day 3 (14 January)
as a recurrent coronal high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 083
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  082/080/080
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01