:Product: 0114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Old region 1138 (N12, L=323),
which has yet to rotate onto the visible disk, produced a long
duration C1 x-ray event at 14/0330Z associated with a CME off the
northeast limb. Region 1145 (N16W25) redeveloped spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (15 - 17 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at mid-latitudes between 14/1500 - 1800Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 January)
as the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) become geoeffective. Quiet levels are expected on days two and
three (16 -17 January) as effects from the CH HSS wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jan 079
Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        14 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01