:Product: 0115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. New region 1147 (N24E80)
produced a C1 flare at 15/1419Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (16 - 18 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 15/1200 - 1500Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (16 - 18
January).
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 080
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01