:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1147
(N27E65) produced isolated to occasional B-flares. Region 1147 is
currently classified as a Dso-Beta group with 5 spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels during the period (17-19 January) with a
chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (17 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on day two (18 January), due to a weak coronal
hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected again on day three
(19 January).
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 080
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  080/080/082
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-007/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01