:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N25E22) produced a few low-level B-class flares during the period.
Region 1147 remained a Cso group and retained its magnetic
complexity, but decayed slightly in area and spot count. Region 1148
(S28W57) decayed to an Axx group with 1 spot.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active to minor storm levels were observed at high
latitudes between 19/0900-1500Z due to a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during days one and two
(20-21 January). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (22 January) due
to a new coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 081
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01