:Product: 0120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N24E09) produced two low-level B-class flares during the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated unsettled
period was observed at Boulder between 20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (21 January). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected
on day two (22 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity should decrease to quiet levels on day three (23
January) as the effects of the CH HSS wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 082
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-007/007-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01