:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1147 (N24W07) and new
Region 1149 (N18W05) produced several C-class flares during the
period. Region 1149 produced a C3 flare at 21/0417Z. This was the
largest flare observed during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1149.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (22 January), due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity should decrease to
quiet levels on days two and three (23 - 24 January) as the effects
of the CH HSS wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 088
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  085/085/085
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01