:Product: 0128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A R1 Radio blackout was observed in association with a M1
flare at 28/0103Z from Region 1149 (N17, L = 349). A CME observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0206Z and a Type II radio sweep, observed at
28/0101Z with an estimated velocity of 732 km/s, were both
associated with this event. Two new regions were numbered today,
Region 1150 (S22E62) and Region 1151 (N09W60).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (29-31 January).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
A proton enhancement was observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft reaching
a max of 2.8 pfu at 28/1625Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29-31
January).
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jan 081
Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  080/080/080
90 Day Mean        28 Jan 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01