:Product: 0207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1153 (N15W56) produced several low level B-class
events. Region 1153 showed an increase in areal coverage, sunspot
count, and magnetic complexity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight change for C-class activity for the
next three days (08-10 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(08-10 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Feb 082
Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb  082/082/082
90 Day Mean        07 Feb 083
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01