:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 042 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1153 produced a B9
flare despite having rotated off the west limb on 09 February. There
are currently four regions on the disk, but all have been mostly
stable and quiet.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days (12-14
February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (12-14 February).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 091
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01