:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1159 (N18E12) produced a
C2 x-ray flare at 12/1506Z. Newly numbered Region 1160 near N16E86
produced several B-class flares from around the east limb early in
the period, as well as B8 x-ray flare at 12/2036Z. Two limb CMEs
were observed on LASCO C2 in conjunction with flaring that
originated from the proximity of Region 1160. A Type II radio sweep
with an estimated speed of 1,977 km/s was reported by the Paleahua
Solar Observatory at 11/2146Z and is believed to be associated with
the first of the two aforementioned CMEs. Neither CME is forecast to
be geoeffective.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely and a chance for a M-class flare during
the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1 and 2 (13 and 14 February)
and quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3
(15 February), due to a recurrent extension of the southern crown
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 096
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  096/098/098
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/40
Minor storm           01/01/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01