:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S20W03)
produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738Z associated with a 130 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s).
Region 1158 grew in area and developed a complex E-type sunspot
group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification.  Region 1157
(N18W30) and Region 1159 (N19W01) both grew slightly but remain
magnetically simple while Region 1160 (N16E74) decayed to spotless
plage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru
three (14-16 February).  Region 1158 continued growth and recent
major flare make this region the most likely source for a major
event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region
1157 and Region 1159.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  Solar wind data from the ACE
satellite indicate a drop in solar wind velocity to approximately
310 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on
days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 107
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  100/100/100
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 084
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/005-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01