:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate with occasional
M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region
1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F
at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu
Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but
maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification.  Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at
16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z.
Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an
area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next
three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more
M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or
greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity
from Region 1161.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities
throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17).  An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z.  Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 114
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  105/105/100
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 085
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  018/018-025/025-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor storm           15/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor storm           20/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01