:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2011 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1162 (N18W19) produced an M1 event at 18/2104Z and several C-class events. Regions 1158 (S19W78) and 1161 (N11W15) continued to produce C-class events during the past 24 hours. NOTE: After further analysis based on new images, the M6 event observed at 18/1011Z appears to have originated from Region 1158 rather than Region 1162. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (20-22 February). All three regions are capable of producing M-class events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and X-class events observed 13-15 February. The ACE spacecraft indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocities from approximately 600 km/s to 400 km/s during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 February). III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 109 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 086 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/05/05 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01