:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2011
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. 
Region 1161 (N11W28) grew slightly in areal coverage and maintained
a beta-gamma magnetic classification.  Region 1162 (N18W32) remained
stable throughout the period.  Both regions produced C-class
activity and Region 1161 produced a long duration B6 event at
20/1837Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (21-23 February). Regions 1161
and 1162 are both capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23
February).
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    60/60/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 105
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  100/100/095
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 086
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01